- Dr. Hans Joachim Höh
How much MM15 product do you want to buy? How can we leverage the little information we have to answer that question?
Disclaimer: Most of the cards discussed today have NOT been confirmed as reprints in Modern Masters 2015. There has been a single post on a single website, claiming that those cards would be in MM15. All of the big spoiler websites have added those cards to their respective MM15 spoiler lists, but there is no photo evidence to support the claim. Anybody could post such a “plausible” list for any number of reasons. So, do NOT act as if those cards were confirmed reprints.
I am just looking at them for an estimate, what the average value would be for opening packs if those cards were in Modern Masters 2015.
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn Price Trend: 29,83€
Karn Liberated Price Trend: 38,34€
Tarmogoyf Price Trend: 113,07€
Vendilion Clique Price Trend: 41,74€
Etched Champion Price Trend: 4,79€
Unconfirmed potential mythic rare reprints
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth Price Trend: 29,28€
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre Price Trend: 24,76€
Dark Confidant Price Trend: 35,03€
All is Dust Price Trend: 14,06€
Tezzeret the Seeker Price Trend: 6,14€
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite Price Trend: 23,95€
Iona, Shield of Emeria Price Trend: 17,34€
Splinter Twin Price Trend: 19,98€
Mox Opal Price Trend: 35,83€
Unconfirmed potential rare reprints
Noble Hierarch Price Trend: 36,54€
Goblin Guide Price Trend: 14,52€
Fulminator Mage Price Trend: 24,07€
Cryptic Command Price Trend: 40,32€
Even if those cards were indeed part of the 249 cards in Modern Masters, we are still missing a lot of important information. But we can just set the missing information any way we want, and consider which parameters would need to change to cause which outcomes regarding the value of the set. We will be pretending to know a lot of things, some of which we just don't know yet, some of which will still vary over the course of time even after we know the full spoiler. So the only results we can potentially get from these thought experiments will be and have to be quite generic. Once we have the complete spoiler, we can start doing more exact calculations. Right now, we are just trying to leverage the little information we have, to answer generic questions, which might still be valuable for you if you have not yet decided how much MM15 product you want to buy (and up to which rate).
Given that at least one professional trader told me he expects opening MM15 to be the equivalent of burning money, which I can't imagine to be the case, the jury seems to still be out on MM15.
Under the following assumptions we can get a first rough estimate for the value of MM15 packs:
We pretend the unconfirmed cards will indeed be in MM15.
We pretend the prices for the reprinted cards will be very similar to the above prices at launch.
We pretend to know the rarity distribution of the set by using Modern Masters, Theros and Khans of Tarkir as reference, all of which had 53 rares and 15 mythic rares.
With an perfectly average distribution you would get 2 of each rare and 1 of each mythic out of 121 packs. When you add up the value of the above mythics and twice the value of the rares, and divide the result by 121, you get a value of 5,51€ per pack already. That is while the value of 2 unknown mythics and 96 unknown rares (2*48) has not been considered at all, yet.
That could be a problem, if all the other rares in the set were as "valuable" as these:
More unconfirmed potential rare reprints
Primal Command Price Trend: 3,27€
Austere Command Price Trend: 2,15€
Profane Command Price Trend: 0,71€
Incendiary Command Price Trend: 0,36€
But if we just assume the unknown mythics to fetch 20€ each (despite the other 13 being 32,80€ on average), the rest of the 96 rare packs just need to provide 3,14€ each for the total value of the opened cards to be equal to the booster price (of 8,33€ aka 200€ per display). Obviously the three lesser Commands won't get you there, but they are just there to complete the cycle, while there are plenty of Modern rare staples worth reprinting above 3€, and we have not even talked about the other cards. In fact there are Modern uncommons above 10€ and commons above 3€ available for reprint, which would lose value due to the reprint, but could still easily improve the value of any given pack. On top of that there is also one Foil per pack, which can really be your winning ticket. If the uncertain 96 packs would provide a total value of 6€ on average, the average value of a pack would jump way above 10€.
There are a lot of other things to consider, like the expected price drop for reprinted singles in the months after release, but I will discuss those in a future article, once more information is available.
To sum up: The set would end up having a good value at release if it actually contained the unconfirmed cards, or cards of similar average value. It would make sense for Wizards to make the set as valuable as possible to increase sales and to actually bring the Modern single card prices down in the long run. Therefore, I still believe it to be a good idea to buy MM15 product. As the pre-sale prices for Modern Masters 2015 Displays have already started to go up a little, I would suggest making your move soon, at the latest when the unconfirmed cards are confirmed or any other evidence for MM15's value shows up. Even if just opening the boosters would be a losing proposition, you could always resell the sealed boxes when the set is out of print, or use the product for drafts. After all the set is designed to provide a great limited environment as well.