What effect will Modern Masters 2015 have on Abzan prices?
Today we are looking at Florian Koch's Abzan list. Abzan is one of the top decks and also the most played deck in recent events. While the naming convention may be new, the concept of combining black control elements (hand disruption and removal) and green efficient creatures has been around for ages. Sometimes we splashed red (for Flametongue Kavu long before “Jund“ was a deck) or white depending on which extra utility cards we needed for the metagame. Nowadays the white splash is much stronger and can be supported by Noble Hierarch instead of requiring Birds of Paradise. This deck is the most expensive concoction you can play in Modern, due to requiring Tarmogoyf, Liliana of the Veil, Noble Hierarch, Marsh Flats, and Verdant Catacombs.
Really? 8 of 60? I can not see how a Modern novice could ever be incentivized to buy the other cards to build this deck after opening a bunch of Modern Masters 2015 packs. Noble Hierarch was definitely an important reprint, and the price dropped to 28€ already, although that could be argued to still be a hilarious price for a glorified Bird. On the other hand the Tarmogoyf price is barely moving down at all due to the reprint at mythic rarity. If Wizards actually acquire new Modern players with MM15, Tarmogoyf's price is going to start rising again very soon.
Not reprinted cards
Too new to be reprinted cards
Reprinted cards (SB)
Not reprinted cards (SB)
Too new to be reprinted cards (SB)
This deck will become a bit more accessible if we see the enemy fetch-lands and Inquisition of Kozilek again in “Battle for Zendikar”.
Here are my favourite long term picks from the deck:
I suggest watching Tarmogoyf's price closely and buy additional copies once the price is “bottoming out” after the three simultaneous Grand Prix. Don't expect it to drop all that much though, before it starts rising again! MM15 has proven that Wizards clearly does not want the price of this card to decrease significantly, so it will stay a safe investment at least for a while.
Liliana of the Veil can not really be reprinted before the next Modern Masters. Magic Origins will already include the transforming Liliana, Heretical Healer, so it is unlikely to have another one as well. While the Foil Liliana of the Veil is used as a participation promo for the RPTQ competitors, it would also not make much sense to “sabotage” the value of that promo with another reprint. The price for the promo and the regular version will be trending towards each other, which still leaves a lot of room for profit despite Liliana's already high price tag.
Abrupt Decay could also be called Absurd Decay, given how absurdly powerful it is. Once a card is seeing play in Legacy and Vintage, there is no further discussion needed. It has been growing slowly, but steadily in recent months. There are a lot of copies on the market, which will keep the card from exploding, but if you are looking for a card that will constantly keep gaining a little value, there is no need to look any further.