#CMWhatTheTrend - Hogaak & Leyline of the Void
- Jamin Kauf
Hello and welcome to WhatTheTrend, the column where we'll examine current trends on Cardmarket, check out why certain cards are popular, and speculate on future price developments. This week, we're examining the biggest threat in Modern and the most common answer to it.
A Rollercoaster of Prices
When Modern Horizons first got released, it quickly became clear that Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis was very broken in conjunction with Bridge from Below and Altar of Dementia. It became the tier 0 deck and rose in price accordingly. Then Bridge got the ban - players and prices were down on the graveyard-centric deck, at least until kanister dominated the Modern Challenge on Magic Online 13-0. This put the deck back on the map and players testing for Mythic Championship IV quickly realized how good it was. With the Mythic Championship IV now in the books, we now have seen Hogaak's true power, making for the new increase in price.
|1Blackcleave Cliffs||4Carrion Feeder||4Faithless Looting|
|2Blood Crypt||2Cryptbreaker||2Lightning Axe|
|3Bloodstained Mire||4Gravecrawler||3Leyline of the Void|
|1Blooming Marsh||4Stitcher's Supplier|
|1Nurturing Peatland||2Lotleth Troll|
|2Overgrown Tomb||4Satyr Wayfinder|
|2Swamp||4Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis|
|2Nature's Claim||2Thoughtseize||2Abrupt Decay|
|1Ancient Grudge||3Assassin's Trophy||2Plague Engineer|
|2Force of Vigor||1Leyline of the Void|
The deck can consistently put out the 8/8 Trample on turn two and even if it doesn't, there will usually be between one and three Vengevines attacking you. The ability to cast Hogaak from the graveyard makes it truly absurd since you don't even need to draw it, every card you mill gets you closer to the free 8/8 avatar. This means the deck needs few enough enablers that it can board in anti-hate cards post board to fight through Rest in Peace and the likes. But even with resolved graveyard hate your early turns usually put out so much pressure that hard casting Carrion Feeder, Bloodghast and Vengevine get you over the line while your opponent takes off a turn to attack your graveyard.
A Word on Main Deck Leyline of the Void
We have seen multiple decks at the Mythic Championship run Leyline of the Void in the main deck. This was a great meta call but still only possible because of the tournament structure. As it featured open decklists, you easily knew whether or not Leyline would make starting hands a keep or a mulligan. Registering four main deck Leyline would be madness otherwise.
And this is important to keep in mind. Hogaak put up impressive win rates even through main deck hate, a feature you cannot expect from regular tournaments, so don't expect this deck to go anywhere soon. If you're playing Modern, you better have a plan for Hogaak in the long run, otherwise, you will do very little winning.
When a deck is clearly placed in Tier 1 of a format, the demand for the cards will rise, everybody knows that. And when even the Pros could not find a good solution to Hogaak, there's a good chance this trend will continue. Speculating on Hogaak is still risky business though since Wizards might deem it too good for Modern once again, making use of the ban hammer twice in a row.
As for Leyline of the Void, it's a card that most likely won't fall out of favor too soon – it simply fulfills a very important role in Modern, Legacy, and Vintage sideboards and will continue to do so, even if Hogaak gets banned. Still, right now there is a lot of hype behind the card because people saw them in main decks, so either get them now or wait for them to come back down after a while. Don't make the mistake of thinking that Leyline will be played all over Modern's main decks though, that is simply wrong – especially in a format where players will stick to their pet decks, no matter how good the newest spice is.