Causal Nexus

How will existing predictions be affected if a new fact is revealed unexpectedly?

There hasn't been an official announcement yet, but a high quality picture of a foil Promo version of Inkmoth Nexus has been posted on the internet. The card has received a new artwork and the bottom clearly states that it is a WMC Qualifier card.

Inkmoth Nexus From (EX+): 19,00 € Price Trend: 23,00 € Foils from: 59,00 €

What does this mean for the price of a regular Inkmoth Nexus?

Generally these WMCQ Promos have been more expensive than the regular set versions, but less expensive than the set foils (despite being foils themselves).

The prices for former WMCQ Promos (Vengevine, Geist of Saint Traft, Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, and Abrupt Decay) have been hovering between 12€ to 25€ recently, with regular copies significantly lower than that.

Inkmoth Nexus on the other hand is selling for 23€ already and 70€ for foils at the moment. This can mean various things:

  • The new Promo will be more valuable than past WMCQ Promos. Wizards just wanted to give out a more desirable prize card.
  • The new Promo will not be more valuable than past WMCQ Promos, because Wizards know that all versions will drop due to the imminent reprint in MM17.

The community was mad when Wizards included Blinkmoth Nexus in MM15 again instead of reprinting the much more sought after Inkmoth. Since then the Nexus was given high odds of getting reprinted in MM17 before this picture was leaked. Now that reprint has suddenly become much less likely. Why should Wizards hurt the value of their WMCQ prize card by reprinting it in MM17 at the same time? They could delay the Inkmoth pack reprint further until EM18 because the card is also a Legacy staple and would fit into that set as well.

So, what should you do now?

I would definitely sell all my foil copies of Inkmoth Nexus now because that price is going to get hurt the most no matter what. The regular copies are a different story though. If we would get a reprint in MM17 and a WMCQ Promo the price would crater and you should sell now and re-buy later next year.

If we only get the WMCQ Promo and no Modern Masters reprint, the price for regular copies will actually spike, because that reprint was expected and the price is currently depressed due to that expectation.

It's your choice whether you want to play it safe or seize a potential opportunity here.

1 Comment

IrenicusShadow(2016-12-08 16:35)

Great evaluation - Thanks!

I'm on the "sell because of mm17"-boat. I think it's okay for them to nuke the price of this promo - because it will be a 15-20 € card even after (foil staple, maybe unique artwork) which is in range of all other price cards. But anything is possible...

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