Due to the Magic Online Championship a lot of Modern elf cards are selling well. What is the right play?
Elf Freunde müsst ihr sein
Due to the Magic Online Championship a lot of Modern elf cards are spiking:
Despite price increases across the board the deck is still one of the cheaper Modern decks, with Cavern of Souls as the only really expensive card. The deck performed really impressive during the final match of the tournament, which means you should sell into the hype, trying to extract the most value out of your Elves while you can. Most players just look at the end result of any tournament instead of trying to see the whole picture. In this case we have a bunch of indicators that Elf Company is not going to be the next “best” Modern deck.
The Magic Online Championship was using four different formats and Modern was only played for four rounds, during which both Elves players just performed 2-2.
Two of the four players with 3-1 or better records in Modern did not make the cut to Top4 due to their other results.
Modern was not used in the semifinals, but only in the finals.
After getting wrecked in Vintage, Jasper De Jong seemed to be losing his nerves and made some questionable decisions with his land drops in the first Modern game against the Elves deck. On turn 4 he could have had the mana for Path to Exile open, in case he found an Eternal Witness with his Collected Company (which he did). He also should have taken two from his shock-land, tutored for and played Melira, Sylvok Outcast on turn three, as that would have won the game in case he drew any creature (to discard for Fauna Shaman) on the next turn. He could also have sacrificed Noble Hierarch to scry for a creature with Viscera Seer.
Some decks are better than others at disrupting a swarm of small creatures. If you are aiming to beat Elf Company, you should be able to do that with the right deck and sideboard.
Overall I expect Elves Company to be a decent, but not dominant deck. It will be heavily played for a short time, before getting hated out of the format. It will show up again periodically, whenever the amount of hate is low again, but most of the deck's card prices are likely peaking right now. If you are a dealer, sell those cards into the hype now. If you are a player looking for an exciting new deck, you should either wait a little, or be prepared to overpay for most of those cards.