Philosophy, Picard, Personal Growth, and Price Predictions!
Often when I am not busy writing MKM Insight articles, learning new IT skills, or designing new board games, I think about “the bigger picture” of all kinds of issues usually discussed (or deliberately ignored) in politics. When doing so, I often wonder why humanity is moving forward in strange directions, when “the correct play“ would obviously be to do something else. Why are people focussing on petty differences like skin color or even place of birth? Shouldn't we all help each other get to the next level of a fulfilling live? Why are people okay with methods of production and industrialization that are hurting the environment so badly that they are a danger for all of humanity?
Do you remember the Star Trek episode, in which Captain Picard said: “We can't do that. It will cost too much money.”? No? Right, neither do I. Money is just an arbitrary system to create goodwill for other people to help you with your endeavors. It can motivate people to offer you food, or a ride in their vehicle, or to work with you on your ambitious project, and so on, but it shouldn't be able to cause us to do things we consider wrong, or prevent us from doing the right thing. Maybe we will collectively understand that some day.
Anyway, we can always hope that humanity as a whole will at some point in the future also see the correct play and turn around the game for the win. It is important for us not to despair in the meantime. Sometimes you are just an early adopter of the correct analysis and have to wait for the others to finally see the light as well.
So what does this have to do with Magic finance? Sometimes you have to stick with your believes a little longer, until the whole community embraces them. It will pay for your hobby nicely if you do:
On August, 22 last year I advised you to pick up copies of Leovold, Emissary of Trest when they were selling for 9,49 €, coming up with the following analysis:
"There are various BUG Legacy decks which could be interested in playing a creature which
has decent stats
will most likely generate card advantage once in play
can be pitched to Force of Will
can be cast on turn two off a turn one Deathrite Shaman
Remember that you get to draw a card when you or your permanents get targeted, which means you can draw (into a counter-spell) and still counter the spell that targeted your cards.
Maybe Leovold won't be used as a 4-of due to being Legendary, but it will see play."
After I had published the article I kept thinking about Leovold and came up with even more arguments why it would be awesome. That is why I provided these arguments just one day later, when the price was approaching 12 €:
"If you weren't convinced yet yesterday, imagine his effect on various matchups if he stays on board because your opponent ran out of removal, or you managed to counter it.
Death and Taxes and “Lands” decks can't wreck your mana base with their Wastelands and Rishadan Ports anymore without giving you lots of free cards. Maze of Ith becomes less exciting as well and Lands players will be especially happy when you counter their second Punishing Fire aimed at Leovold after drawing two cards. Storm decks will have a hard time shaping their perfect hand, and they can't chain cantrips anymore to get the storm count up. Leovold also laughs at the “mighty” Jace, the Mind Sculptor, who can't Brainstorm for you anymore, while both his bouncing and even his fate sealing ability will draw you a card.
Legacy Elves aren't great at attacking through a 3/3, especially not if they can't fill the board because they can't draw a single extra card. Elvish Visionary and Glimpse of Nature, often the best cards in that deck are turned into complete blanks.
Get used to Leo's picture and his “Good Game” gesture, as you may be offering the handshake due to this card more often than you think."
I didn't understand why the community was still pretty slow to react, so I kept talking about the card. On October, 18 the card was selling for 13,50 € and foils had already doubled in price.
“Leo just needs one good tournament result for regular copies to go wild as well. It already gained 2 € in the last seven days and shows no signs of weakness. Buy!”
By now the community has woken up. Not only did Reid Duke win the Legacy GP in Louisville with a deck looking to play Leovold on the second turn, but Leo was also making waves in the Vintage Super League. MKM Series star player Rodrigo Togores used three copies in his Vintage control deck to win a spot in the Vintage Super League during the preliminary rounds. Congratulations to those two, who saw the light and dared to experiment with this card, and to everybody who listened to me and picked up their copies early. By now Leovold has more than quadrupled in price, and I don't expect him to stop crushing in the Eternal formats any time soon.
From (EX+): 40,99 € Price Trend: 45,25 €
Sounds like a good start into the new year!