How Does the Modern Format Impact Card Prices on Cardmarket?

Kainan17

Modern shapes the European market more than you think. How that works and what that means for your trading on Cardmarket is explained in a new Price of Knowledge video. We take a closer look at Stormwing Entity and Shark Typhoon their supply and demand to learn how their prices developed.



Video Transcript:

Hello everyone and welcome to Cardmarket's YouTube channel. I am Pablo and today we are going to discuss the impact of Modern in the European market.

When we discuss finances in Magic: The Gathering, we normally take as an example the American market because of the size of the market, but also because of the data we receive from them. On the other side of the ocean, we have Europe, which is a massive market as well, but the key part is that it is different in taste. Before the pandemic, if you check the participation of GPs — or MagicFests — you will see that, in Europe, the number of players that are taking part in events with eternal formats like - let's count Modern as an eternal format — Legacy and, other more traditional formats like old-school. There tend to be more players in Europe than in the US while, normally, if you are talking about Sealed or Standard, it is the other way around; America has more players than Europe.

My theory is that: Europe is, and always has been, a big stronghold for eternal formats. Whether we are talking about Vintage, Legacy, or Modern, here in Europe the impact of those formats is much bigger than in other territories. We can see the effect of those three formats in the European market but, more precisely, on Cardmarket — which is Europe's number one market place for sure and it is not because I am in the channel, it is because it's an actual fact.

Today, I wanted to bring you two examples of two cards in particular. There are more cards that I am going to mention but I am going to focus my analysis on these two to keep it short and straight. If you go back in time you can always see some reference of Modern and Legacy taking part in most of the transactions that happen in Cardmarket.

Cardmarket has some interesting tools that would allow us to run analysis and try to predict what is going to happen in the future with some cards in a certain amount of time. We are, of course, talking about the biggest stock decrease, we are talking about best sellers or best bargains. We can use these tools that are public for everyone that uses Cardmarket to analyze what happened with some of the cards that we had. The two cards that are the main topic of today's video are going to be: Stormwing Entity and Shark Typhoon a.k.a. Sharknado.


Stormwing Entity Shark Typhoon

These cards are particular in many regards but, they also have some features in common. They are very popular in Modern, but they are very popular in Standard as well. Probably, Stormwing Entity is the least played of these two cards. Shark Typhoon is played literally everywhere in every single format — probably not in Vintage — but I have seen lists of Legacy playing this card but, you are going to be playing it in Pioneer Standard and, Modern, which are the three most popular formats at the moment.

We can see - I have some notes here - that Shark Typhoon is very low on stock in general, especially if we are talking about a standard card. On July 19, almost 14 days ago — we are filming this on August 1, on a Saturday. There were only 333 copies of a rare card that is part of the current Standard block or set. It is extremely low for any of the Standards that we normally see and this is probably because of the demand that the card is generating; just because of all the formats that it is played on but, also, at the same time, it's a kind of a surprise because of the low supply that had Ikoria due to the pandemic.

If we can see Ikoria, and if we gather all the rares and the mythics that are in the set, we put them together and we add them up, as of today, it is one of the lowest stocks. It is the lowest stock in terms of the total price or total cards that are in the market, right now, for the last five or six sets. The last one I included in this analysis is War of the Spark which is the oldest one and it is very close to rotating out of Standard; therefore, the opening of boxes is going to be awfully reduced in the next few months but, still, there are more cards than are for Ikoria as a whole.

But there are some caveats in this data. It is because there were Challenger decks in March that were released with cards from Theros Beyond Death, Throne of Eldraine, or War of the Spark even. Thus, we cannot really compare apples to apples. The cards that are on stock for these sets that were part of the Challenger decks versus sets that were not part of those Challenger decks like, for instance, Core Set 2021 or Ikoria. But what we can compare is the number of foil cards that are part of the market right now or in supply for these sets. If we gather all this information for all the sets I have mentioned before — Theros, Throne of Eldraine, Core 2021, Ikoria, and War of the Spark — the lowest supply of foil cards is for War of the Spark . This is not surprising as it is the oldest set and, second comes Ikoria. It really shows that there was a lack of supply for Ikoria probably due to the pandemic, probably because it was rarely drafted here in Europe and there is not that massive injection of cards that happen every time a new set comes out.

Basically, this kind of behavior leads to having both a low supply and a high demand for specific cards and Shark Typhoon is exactly that kind of card. We are talking about a card that doubled the price in only a few days. We are talking about 14 days that it would, literally, double the price and now, we see it's stabilizing a little bit more. We see copies being injected in the market. As of today, we are talking about 453 copies.

So, it is about a hundred and twenty more than two weeks ago, which is a trend up, and, that means that if you see also the price trend, you see that is plateauing a little bit. Probably, people are trying to flip the cards that they bought very cheaply and they want to get some money back out of that or, probably, because people just see the prices, see that Ikoria is undersupplied and they have decided to open boxes now that there are probably easier to get.


Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily Cardmarket.



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