MM15 stopover

As I predicted on Saturday, some of the prices for Modern Masters 2015 cards have started to stabilize for now. What will happen next?

The patient is stable now

As I predicted on Saturday, some of the prices for Modern Masters 2015 cards have started to stabilize (for now) after their release decline. The players have significantly undercut the pre-sale prices of the dealers to be able to move their unwanted cards, despite not being able to offer playsets. Once the prices are low enough, the cards get bought by other players or traders filling their inventory. For the most desired cards the amount of freshly listed copies has already started to be too small compared to the demand. 

You can clearly see the effect, when you look at the graphs of Spellskite, Noble Hierarch, and Tarmogoyf. We are already seeing small upward spikes for those cards after the initial decline. That does not mean that they will go up again already, it just means they are stabilizing for the moment. Do not buy the Commander and casual cards just yet, as they keep on falling. Now is a decent time to buy the Modern staples you need, or to stock up your inventory, but I expect it to be best to wait until early next week. It is difficult to estimate how much product will get opened up at Grand Prix Utrecht, and how that will compare to what is on the market right now, but it seems like a very significant amount to me. More than 3300 players are pre-registered for GP Utrecht so far. Just during the main event those players will open 6 packs each, resulting in at least 19800 packs opened, which translates to 825 opened displays, or 163 of each mythic rare and 327 of each rare on average (not counting foils). Obviously, not all of those cards will end up on the market, but we also did not consider the day 2 drafts or any of the many side events, yet. Therefore, I expect a second price drop right after the GP. Don't miss it!

Winning the lottery

On Saturday I posted the contents of the first MM15 display I opened and told you to be aware of the value variance between displays, which is a lot higher than for displays of any recent Standard-legal set. Of course variance works in both directions, so I did not want to leave you with the wrong impression. While the content of my first display was quite disappointing, the next one was filled to the brim with treasures:

Scute Mob

All is Dust 5 €

Foil Swans of Bryn Argoll 4 €

Wilt-Leaf Liege 7 €

Karn Liberated 28 €

Banefire

Etched Monstrosity

Midnight Banshee

Indomitable Archangel

Chimeric Mass

Noble Hierarch 25 €

Apocalypse Hydra

Dark Confidant 28 €

Nobilis of War

Cryptic Command 25 €

Foil Dark Confidant 85 €

Thunderblust

Fulminator Mage 15 €

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite 16 €

Mox Opal 30 €

Spikeshot Elder

Foil Puppeteer Clique 5 €

Mirror Entity

Surgical Extraction 2 €

Inexorable Tide

Eye of Ugin 2 €

Lodestone Myr

So in this case just looking at the valuable rares already leads to a resale value of approximately 280 € (while using the low “From (EX+)” prices). Needless to say, only adding up the value using today's prices is not painting the whole picture, as you can easily increase that value by selling some cards now, while keeping exactly those cards which are likely to go up in the long run, to sell them at a later date. Given that this display had a lot of Modern constructed staples, the chances are even brighter. Considering that opening a Tarmogoyf can swing the value pendulum even further in your favour, playing the MM15 lottery seems like a good idea overall. Good luck and have fun!

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