Paradoxical Outcome in Vintage: The New Hotness?

- Pietro Cavalletti
- 2018-10-25
Vintage format has been revolutionized by a card capable of winning games at instant speed and all on its own. It's not only because of its raw power, but also because of how easy it is to build balanced and synergistic decks around it. Pietro is here to tell you everything you could possibly want to know about Paradoxical Outcome in Vintage.
The history of combo decks in Vintage is long and starts with the format's inception. Sometimes they're slow, sometimes they're inefficient, sometimes they're devastating (Tinker with four Tolarian Academy anyone), sometimes they're legendary, and frequently they define the format.



This is in the past though. Since Kaladesh, we have the present and future of Vintage combo: Paradoxical Outcome. It's come into Vintage the way Messi and Ronaldo came to the world of football: quick, efficient, deadly, virtually impossible to stop once it starts.
(Almost) Winning at Instant Speed with a CMC 4 Spell
Many mechanics have revolutionized Vintage, like Storm and Dredge, but non have done it the way Paradoxical Outcome did.


To get a sense of the raw power of this card, let's look at another "broken" card in Vintage – Yawgmoth's Bargain. It's been restricted for a long time in the Vintage format and has always been considered a broken card, despite a CMC of 6, two required black mana, and sorcery speed, while also having to spend life points to use it. Now imagine a Blue version of this card, except it's an Instant, costs only four, and, in Vintage, has no drawbacks. Also, you can run four of them. Of course, Outcome only reaches these heights because of the plethora of zero cost artifacts present in the format, but that doesn't make its power any less substantial.
Main Advantages and Bonuses
If you ever played decks like Belcher, TolarianAcademy.deck, or Ad Nauseam, you must have noticed some significant variance in the decks' performance: hands with only mana sources, risky hands, forced mulligans, and more. That probably gave you a fair few losses in a tournament without even getting to play.



Moreover, a turn one Force of Will or Duress / Thoughtseize generally cause serious problems for these combo decks.
That's not going to happen with Paradoxical Outcome decks. You can play your mana sources, build a balanced deck, not risking everything in the first two turns, instead waiting for the right spot to resolve an Outcome, getting the edge you need to win the game.
Basically, you're a combo deck that doesn't suffer the classic problems of combo decks.
In fact, you can afford to have:
- A Solid Manabase.
- Fast and cheap Mana that you can transform into card draw.
- The possibility of playing your bombs at the end of turn after seeing opponent's actions.
- Versatility in the brew and in how you end the game.
- Low color dependence.
- Strong, synergistic strategies without a significant number of "dead-when-alone" cards.
The Brews


- 3-4 Paradoxical Outcomes
- Black Lotus
- The Five Moxen
- Mana Crypt
- Sol Ring
- Mana Vault
- 1-3 Mox Opal
- 1-2 Sensei's Divining Top
- 1-2 Voltaic Key
- 1 Time Vault
That's the base.
Then you have, at a minimum, 39 cards that you are virtually free to choose from anywhere in the annals of Magic history.
Let's now see the possibilities and the best options to maximize the power of Paradoxical Outcome.
Paradoxical Mentor
A deadly control deck that uses combo finishers like Monastery Mentor, Tinker + Blightsteel Colossus, and, obviously, Voltaic Key + Time Vault.
Maindeck | ||
---|---|---|
13Lands | 19Other Permanents | 28Instants and Sorceries |
1Flooded Strand | 1Blightsteel Colossus | 1Demonic Tutor |
1Island | 1Monastery Mentor | 1Gitaxian Probe |
1Library of Alexandria | 1Black Lotus | 1Merchant Scroll |
2Misty Rainforest | 1Mana Crypt | 3Night's Whisper |
1Polluted Delta | 1Mana Vault | 1Ponder |
2Scalding Tarn | 1Mox Emerald | 4Preordain |
1Tolarian Academy | 1Mox Jet | 1Time Walk |
1Tundra | 3Mox Opal | 1Tinker |
3Underground Sea | 1Mox Pearl | 1Treasure Cruise |
1Mox Ruby | 1Ancestral Recall | |
1Mox Sapphire | 1Brainstorm | |
2Sensei's Divining Top | 1Dig Through Time | |
1Sol Ring | 1Flusterstorm | |
1Time Vault | 4Force of Will | |
2Voltaic Key | 2Hurkyl's Recall | |
4Paradoxical Outcome |
Sideboard | ||
---|---|---|
1Flusterstorm | 2Grafdigger's Cage | 2Hurkyl's Recall |
2Island | 2Kambal, Consul of Allocation | 2Karn, Scion of Urza |
4Tormod's Crypt | ||
The Deck is very solid, with a good mix of manipulation, draw engine, and permission spells. It even has a nice "Semi transformational" sideboard with Karn, Scion of Urza and Kambal, Consul of Allocation.
Paradoxical Combo-Control
This version has more protection (Mental Misstep) and solidity (Snapcaster Mage), but also features Mentor, Colossus, and Tutors.
This can be played as 4-Color Control as well to have Red for Dack Fayden in the main deck and Pyroblasts in the side, or you can just leave it 3-Color.
Maindeck | ||
---|---|---|
14Lands | 22Other Permanents | 24Instants and Sorceries |
2Flooded Strand | 1Blightsteel Colossus | 1Demonic Tutor |
1Island | 1Monastery Mentor | 1Night's Whisper |
1Library of Alexandria | 1Monastery Mentor | 1Ponder |
1Misty Rainforest | 2Snapcaster Mage | 1Time Walk |
1Polluted Delta | 1Mana Crypt | 1Tinker |
1Scalding Tarn | 1Mana Vault | 1Treasure Cruise |
1Tolarian Academy | 1Mox Emerald | 1Time Walk |
2Tundra | 1Mox Jet | 1Tinker |
2Underground Sea | 3Mox Opal | 1Treasure Cruise |
2Volcanic Island | 1Mox Pearl | 1Yawgmoth's Will |
1Mox Ruby | 1Ancestral Recall | |
1Mox Sapphire | 1Brainstorm | |
2Sensei's Divining Top | 1Dig Through Time | |
1Sol Ring | 4Force of Will | |
1Time Vault | 1Hurkyl's Recall | |
1Voltaic Key | 3Mental Misstep | |
2Dack Fayden | 4Paradoxical Outcome | |
1Repeal | ||
1Vampiric Tutor |
Sideboard | ||
---|---|---|
1Balance | 2Containment Priest | 1Fragmentize |
2Hurkyl's Recall | 2Kambal, Consul of Allocation | 4Leyline of the Void |
2Pyroblast | 1Tormod's Crypt | |
Paradoxical Storm
The power of the Storm version is easy to visualize: you play the artifacts, you play the outcome, you draw X cards, you play the artifacts again for a ridiculous storm count and then cast your win condition. But, thanks to the extreme versatility of PO, there are actually different version of this particular storm variant.
The first one is a devastating Grixis version with the abuse of quick mana sources, like four Mox Opal and Lion's Eye Diamond, that can be turned into cards with Paradoxical Outcome, making for easy Yawgmoth's Will and Tendrils of Agony / Mind's Desire combos.
Maindeck | ||
---|---|---|
11Lands | 20Other Permanents | 29Instants and Sorceries |
1Flooded Strand | 1Snapcaster Mage | 1Demonic Tutor |
2Island | 1Black Lotus | 1Gitaxian Probe |
1Misty Rainforest | 1Defense Grid | 1Merchant Scroll |
1Polluted Delta | 1Lion's Eye Diamond | 1Mind's Desire |
2Scalding Tarn | 1Lotus Petal | 1Painful Truths |
1Tolarian Academy | 1Mana Crypt | 1Ponder |
2Underground Sea | 1Mana Vault | 3Preordain |
1Volcanic Island | 1Memory Jar | 1Tendrils of Agony |
1Mox Emerald | 1Time Walk | |
1Mox Jet | 1Timetwister | |
4Mox Opal | 1Tinker | |
1Mox Pearl | 1Wheel of Fortune | |
1Mox Ruby | 1Yawgmoth's Will | |
1Mox Sapphire | 1Ancestral Recall | |
2Sensei's Divining Top | 1Brainstorm | |
1Sol Ring | 1Flusterstorm | |
4Force of Will | ||
1Hurkyl's Recall | ||
1Mystical Tutor | ||
4Paradoxical Outcome | ||
1Repeal |
Sideboard | ||
---|---|---|
1Blightsteel Colossus | 1Chain of Vapor | 1Defense Grid |
2Flusterstorm | 3Hurkyl's Recall | 2Island |
1Karn, Scion of Urza | 1Lightning Bolt | 3Tormod's Crypt |
Another interesting "storm" version features a U/W manabase, four Mystic Remora and Brain Freeze as cheap, efficient finishers. Brain Freeze is particularly effective because it can also be played during the opponent's turn using his spells to raise the storm count.
The main difference with the other versions is that there is less of a need to abuse Mox Opal because it can't be played at instant speed and the interesting sideboard plan with Thing in the Ice / Awoken Horror.
Maindeck | ||
---|---|---|
15Lands | 17Other Permanents | 28Instants and Sorceries |
4Flooded Strand | 1Snapcaster Mage | 1Gitaxian Probe |
5Island | 1Monastery Mentor | 1Merchant Scroll |
1Library of Alexandria | 1Black Lotus | 1Ponder |
1Misty Rainforest | 1Mana Crypt | 4Preordain |
1Scalding Tarn | 1Mox Emerald | 1Time Walk |
1Tolarian Academy | 1Mox Jet | 1Treasure Cruise |
2Tundra | 1Mox Opal | 1Ancestral Recall |
1Mox Pearl | 1Brain Freeze | |
1Mox Ruby | 1Brainstorm | |
1Mox Sapphire | 1Dig Through Time | |
2Sensei's Divining Top | 4Force of Will | |
1Sol Ring | 1Gush | |
4Mystic Remora | 1Hurkyl's Recall | |
4Mental Misstep | ||
2Mindbreak Trap | ||
3Paradoxical Outcome |
Sideboard | ||
---|---|---|
1Containment Priest | 2Fragmentize | 1Hurkyl's Recall |
2Pithing Needle | 1Plains | 2Swords to Plowshares |
3Thing in the Ice / Awoken Horror | 3Tormod's Crypt | |
Trinket Mage Versions
As I've said before, the deck can be built any way you want to. Outcome is so powerful that it can turn every deck with a bunch of moxen and cheap artifacts into a combo deck.
I've seen some "planeswalker" versions of the build centered around the abuse of Trinket Mages. Trinket gives gas to your PO, closes the Key-Vault Combo, and can bring out the classic Sensei's Divining Top. Here's a list using this interaction:
Maindeck | ||
---|---|---|
14Lands | 20Other Permanents | 26Instants and Sorceries |
1Flooded Strand | 1Snapcaster Mage | 1Fragmentize |
1Island | 1Monastery Mentor | 1Gitaxian Probe |
1Library of Alexandria | 1Blightsteel Colossus | 1Ponder |
1Polluted Delta | 1Trinket Mage | 3Preordain |
4Scalding Tarn | 1Black Lotus | 1Time Walk |
1Tolarian Academy | 1Mana Crypt | 1Tinker |
3Tundra | 1Mana Vault | 1Treasure Cruise |
2Volcanic Island | 1Mox Emerald | 1Ancestral Recall |
1Mox Jet | 1Brainstorm | |
1Mox Pearl | 1Dig Through Time | |
1Mox Ruby | 4Force of Will | |
1Mox Sapphire | 1Gush | |
1Sensei's Divining Top | 3Mental Misstep | |
1Sol Ring | 4Paradoxical Outcome | |
1Time Vault | 1Pyroblast | |
1Voltaic Key | 1Repeal | |
1Dack Fayden | ||
1Karn, Scion of Urza | ||
1Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | ||
1Tezzeret the Seeker |
Sideboard | ||
---|---|---|
1Balance | 2Containment Priest | 1Flusterstorm |
1Fragmentize | 1Grafdigger's Cage | 1Hurkyl's Recall |
3Ingot Chewer | 1Mountain | 1Path to Exile |
1Pyroblast | 1Relic of Progenitus | 1Tormod's Crypt |
Conclusions

Let's try to pick out some of the key advantages of this archetype
- PO is not only extremely powerful but also extremely difficult to hate out because of its instant speed.
- It can be adapted to the preferences of the individual player.
- It forces the opponent to always leave counters up as you can combo off at any time
- It provides stable mana for combo shells, as they no longer need hit-or-miss cards like Dark Ritual.
- Being the complete combo-control package, the SB is left open for Transformational SBs or solid strategies against MUD/Shops and Dredge
And here are the "disadvantages."
- Suffers more from Null Rod than other similar decks
- Suffers more from mass artifact hate
- Even in the quicker versions, it's not as explosive as some combos, given that PO costs four mana.
- The control version of the deck is less reliable and solid than Snapcaster/Planeswalker Control decks
- Except for the U/W version, the manabase is vulnerable and too reliant on artifact mana
That said, the deck is performing exceptionally well and is clearly viable, even for "goldfishing," given that it can combo kill. It can also easily adapt to suit different metagames just by changing a few cards.
You want to know the real risk of the deck?
Paradoxical Outcome's untimely restriction in the next few months.
Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily Cardmarket.
1 Comment
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PO decks are faring well in tournaments but their results are not overwhelming so there is little chance that PO get restricted on short notice.