Seizing Thoughts

Looking at the future prospects of various M15 cards.

Rotating M15 

Today I want to answer a question and follow up on yesterday's article, because I did not talk about any M15 cards specifically. Obviously you should apply the same reasoning to all the M15 cards, as the set rotates out together with the Theros block. You could argue that M15 will behave a little differently as fewer product was opened and therefore less total copies of every card are on the market. You could also argue that there are more cards in the set with a casual appeal, that will remain desirable for Commander or Highlander decks after rotation. Looking at the current price trends of those cards will give you a good idea in which direction they will keep heading after rotation at least for a while.

Chord of Calling From (EX+): 6,00 € Price Trend: 7,66 €

Phyrexian Revoker From (EX+): 0,50 € Price Trend: 1,40 €

and maybe

Ensoul Artifact From (EX+): 1,05 € Price Trend: 2,14 €

are the the cards with reasonable Modern applications. These are the cards you should keep, buy or trade for soon.

The planeswalkers will probably all come down to starting prices of 3-5 € long term, where they will stabilize due to casual demand. Which means you should sell or trade away your remaining Nissa, Worldwaker and Garruk, Apex Predator cards now. After just giving us the “Flipwalkers” these M15 planeswalkers won't be reprinted very soon. Even if they were reprinted into Standard, you could buy them again at a lower price then.

Sliver Hivelord From (EX+): 4,25 € Price Trend: 5,83 €

is a card that can be a 4-of in kitchen table decks and will slowly be gaining value despite never seeing tournament play. There is always a lot of casual love for Slivers.

Return to Theros

Now let's go back to Theros! One of our users wanted to know my thoughts on Thoughtseize, which I deliberately left out of yesterday's article. I personally believe Thoughtseize's price should come down considerably, but that doesn't mean that it will. This card sees play in Modern and even the eternal formats sometimes, therefore the price won't instantly plummet. It is a very reasonable card for some decks, but most players do not consider the other options enough. In Modern you could play Duress, or Inquisition of Kozilek instead and Legacy adds Cabal Therapy to the list of strong discard options for one black mana. While Thoughtseize can sometimes give you the choice to discard a card that Duress and Inquisition of Kozilek won't be able to get, most of the time they will have the exact same effect without costing you two life, because there are less creatures and much less expensive spells in Modern and Eternal decks. Most players think those life points don't matter, especially when they cast Thoughtseize on turn one, but they are wrong. The common saying is that it is the last point of life that matters, but that is only half the story. At every point in the game the exact life total balance is relevant for damage racing decisions by both players. You being at 10 life instead of at 12 can allow your opponent to make that suboptimal attack that loses him nearly his entire board of attackers due to your blocks, just because he knows that this play puts you exactly into reach for his flyer on the next turn or for his remaining burn spells in hand. Most players just think of the last Lightning Bolt as the thing that killed them, ignoring the fact that they took 4 damage three turns earlier from their own Thoughtseizes, which could have been Duress (for 2 cents) instead. Therefore I don't think Thoughtseize is the best discard spell in Modern and beyond and should be used even less than it currently is. I just like it in Suicide Zoo variants, where you actually use the life loss to your advantage.

So to me the answer is clear. As a card that was printed in two sets already and is not distinctly the best option at what it does, Thoughtseize should cost less than what it does now. The problem is that the community has to understand that as well, which could take forever if the famous writers keep singing the Thoughtseize praise. So the price can irrationally go both ways, you will just have to keep monitoring it closely.

From (EX+): 17,00 € Price Trend: 18,69 €

2 Comments

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MKM-Insight(2015-08-25 12:36)

You are obviously talking about Legacy, where you could have targeted yourself with Cabal Therapy as well. My point is that Thoughtseize is not automatically the best choice as a discard spell for every deck, and you should seriously consider whether you can get the job done just as well with another card that does not cost you 2 life. It is also absurd to use a 18 € card, when a much cheaper card could actually be just as good in your deck.

Tuardian(2015-08-24 21:29)

Duress has the additional disadvantage "Target oponent reveals...." With my Reanimator Deck I won many games by Thoughtseizing myself, getting rid of an unwanted Griselbrand or Iona in my opening hand and reanimating it immediately with Dark Ritual/Lotus Petal/Mox Diamond/Chrome Mox or in Round 2.

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