Told You So
- Dr. Hans Joachim Höh
The best part about predicting the future is getting to say "told you so" afterwards.
I wanted to talk some more about all those Modern results anyway, so why not start with one of your questions?
“I haven't followed the two GPs. Was there something exciting going on concerning As Foretold?”
As Foretold From (EX+): 5,40 €
This mythic rare entered the market at 12 € and even went up above 15 €, before starting its descent. Its average sales price dropped below 6 € five days ago before a massive interest on Saturday sent the price upwards again. There were very different As Foretold builds showcased in the coverage on Saturday, but without a top 8 appearance to keep the hype going, sales slowed down on Sunday and nearly normalized on Monday. So what is the correct play here? Sell all copies because the deck has failed? I don't think so.
By the way, I don't think the best version of Devoted Druid/Vizier has been revealed yet either. It often takes 6 months until a Magic deck has evolved from the basic concept to containing the perfect 60 main deck cards. Four weeks ago at the MKM Series Frankfurt I told Tobias Henke that I believed the combo to be better in an Elves deck than in a Kitchen Finks/Viscera Seer deck. One month later, we saw Martin Juza try exactly that, earning himself a Top16 finish at GP Copenhagen, despite being unhappy with his own quality of play.
By now I can see a third version of the deck, which might be even better, but I digress. My point was that knowing the key combo of a deck doesn't automatically lead to the correct build.
With As Foretold the issue is even more complicated because it is not even obvious which cards are the best ones to cast with it for free. That is why so many suspend cards spiked when the card was previewed. It is not at all obvious what the best use is and there might be even better options printed somewhere down the road. It is an open ended card which will keep getting better over time, which makes it a great target in general – the only question is when will be the best point to pick it up?
Shahar Shenhar, another great player, who isn't afraid to brew, tried to use it in a Jeskai control deck. He ended up in 40th place at GP Copenhagen, which doesn't sound like much, but that means he played 11-3-1. If he wouldn't have lost his last round, his deck would have been shown in the Top16 lists and the story would have been different. His primary use of As Foretold was to repeatedly draw three cards with Ancestral Vision for free, only running two Restore Balance and no Borderposts, Greater Gargadon or other cards to optimize a potentially devastating turn three Balance.
The next Modern GP will be Las Vegas in 20 days, which gives us a short period for As Foretold's price to potentially cool down again. I think it will take longer than that until a “Told you so” deck cracks its first Top8 though.
As an European player you might want to start brewing with this card for MKMS Prague in July instead. Here is Shahar's list for comparison: